The Foresight Lab
Issue 12Crypto laundering & sanctions evasion

Laundering at the speed of a blockchain

At the fiat-to-crypto border, launderers structure deposits, hop across chains, and route through risky counterparties to break the trail. Following the flow is the only way to see it.

Aug 31, 2026 3 min read

What we're seeing

Exchanges and on-/off-ramps are where dirty fiat tries to become clean crypto and back again. Launderers structure deposits under reporting thresholds, rapidly convert and 'chain-hop' across tokens and networks, and route funds through mixers or risky counterparties to obscure the source.

Each step can look like ordinary trading. The laundering is visible only when you map the whole flow — who funded it, how fast it moved, and where it ultimately went.

Why your current stack misses it

  • Amount-based and single-event rules miss structuring (deliberately under thresholds) and the sheer speed of conversion chains.
  • Without graph-based visibility across counterparties and chains, risky and sanctioned endpoints hide just one hop away.

The signal pattern

  • Fiat deposits structured just under reporting thresholds, then immediate conversion.
  • Rapid chain-hopping and token swaps with no economic purpose beyond obfuscation.
  • Counterparties or destination addresses linked to mixers, high-risk venues, or sanctioned entities.
  • Deposit-convert-withdraw pass-through, with funds rarely resting.

What you'd do Monday morning

  • Use graph-based monitoring across counterparties and chains, not per-transaction amount rules.
  • Score structuring + rapid conversion + risky-counterparty exposure together as one flow.
  • Screen destination addresses against sanctions and high-risk-venue lists before any off-ramp.
Now you try

Spot the Fraud

Read the case. Make the call. See how you score against The PreCogs.

Spot the Fraud
FL-12

A newly funded exchange account structures its deposits, converts immediately, and routes the funds out within hours. Every trade looks normal on its own. Clear it, or hold it?

Funding6 fiat deposits of $9,000–$9,800 over 3 days
ActionEach converted to crypto within minutes
Movement4 token swaps across 3 chains, no economic rationale
DestinationWithdrawal to an address linked to a mixer
CounterpartyOne hop from a sanctioned-list entity
DwellFunds held minutes to hours, never settled
AccountOpened 4 days ago, minimal KYC
PatternDeposit → convert → hop → off-ramp, repeated
Your call?
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